The next weather system is forecast by Atmo's high-resolution WRF-GFS model to move rapidly across Arizona late this afternoon and tonight. Warm temperatures and gusty south-southwesterly winds will precede a strong, Pacific cold front. The above forecast of composite radar images (from the midnight forecast run of the WRF-GFS) is valid at 1 am MST tonight and indicates showers across eastern Pima County.
The forecast surface plot (above) valid at midnight tonight indicates the cold front moving into the northwest portion of the metro area. The forecast for 1 am MST tomorrow (below) indicates the front has passed through the metro area, with light showers immediately behind the front.
Total precipitation through noon tomorrow (above) is forecast to be generally light with highest amounts over the mountains. The main impacts will be the winds and much colder temperatures. Thick middle and upper level cloudiness (see 8:30 am MST visible satellite image below) has already spread across southern Arizona and this will impact the degree of heating and boundary layer mixing that occurs today - it's currently a dreary, chilly morning here in north Tucson. Cold troughiness at 500 mb lingers over Arizona for at least the next 5 days, bringing what may be the coldest period of the winter.
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