Above is water vapor image for 13 UTC this morning (24 January 2013). The upper-level system off the west coast appears to be more complex than indicated in the model forecasts. There appear to be two distinct vorticity maxima interacting this morning - one is about due west of San Diego and the other (with the dry center, is to its west-northwest and digging southward. Eventually they will consolidate into a single system that will move across Arizona this weekend. The long plumes of moisture from the south are quite impressive. Below is the CIMSS blended PW product from 11 UTC - the plume of northward moving tropical and subtropical moisture is very impressive. Not an atmospheric river situation but a very broad moisture intrusion.
Below is the early GFS-WRF forecast of total precipitation through midnight Saturday night - model is forecasting some substantial amounts, especially across the Rim country. Will be keeping a close eye on the evolution of the model forecasts for this event.
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