Very substantial plume of tropical/subtropical moisture extends into much of Arizona and southern California this morning. Above is 12 UTC blended PW product from CIRA/Colorado State and below is 10 UTC MIMIC PW product from CIMSS at Univ. of Wisconsin. The MIMIC product shows the moisture plume extending northward to the central California coast, where it is interacting with a narrow atmospheric river coming from north of Hawaii. Rain amounts already are at 0.50 to 0.75 inches in the mountains, with amounts reaching to around 0.33" at some places in the metro area.
The early WRF-GFS forecast of precipitation through midnight tomorrow night (27 January 2013) is shown above - with a major event indicated for the higher elevations of northern Arizona with a focus on the Rim north of Payson. The latest NAM forecast of precipitation ending at same time is below. It appears that both models continue to under-forecast rainfall amounts for our part of the state (we are now around 0.35" here at the house).
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