The NWS map of current watches and warnings (above) continues to be a colorful display this morning (Saturday, January 4th). Another storm is developing over the Plains, as a new push of arctic air heads south and eastward. So travel delays, and other widespread, winter weather problems will continue through the weekend for much of the country.
I took a look at the NWS GFS model's ensemble forecasts from 00 UTC last evening to get a feel for when the NH pattern at 500 mb might change. Above graphic shows the 500 mb height averages and departures from normal valid at 48-hours - dominant features are the strong, west coast ridge and the cold lows over the Great Lakes and north Atlantic. By 144-hours (below) the west coast ridge has flattened some, and shifted westward, as lower heights push briefly into the West. However, by 228-hours (bottom) the ridge has strengthened again, just off the west coast. This pattern persists through the entire forecast run (out through 384-hours) indicating that the extreme dryness over much of the West and Southwest will likely continue through much of January and that the East will have to endure a long, strong siege of winter weather.
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