More On The Bouncing Temperatures Across Metro Tucson

Edited to add verification on January 15th - the WRF model was considerably too warm in its forecast of morning lows since the east winds went mostly calm across the metro area after about 2 am. Winds at high elevations blew through the night from the east and lows were considerably warmer at the higher elevations.

Verifications re post below: TUS WRF 51 F NWS grid 37 F actual was 34 F; DM WRF 49 F NWS grid 38 F actual was 36 F; house WRF NA NWS grid 39 F actual 23 F. So only part of my discussion that turned out accurate was that relative to here at the house, where the string of very cold mornings continues.

Lows this morning were very cold here in the north part of the city of Tucson and it was 23 F with another frost here at the house. But down at the airport and also DM AFB the lows were 35 F. The WRF-NAM forecast from 12 UTC this morning continues to forecast much warmer temperatures tomorrow morning (Wednesday, January 15th).

Table above shows WRF forecast lows for tomorrow morning with the range over Tucson metro from about 45 F to 55 F. Forecast low for airport is 51 F, which is 16 F warmer than this morning. The warmer low temperatures are due to the easterly winds that the model forecasts to persist during the night - below is the WRF-NAM forecast of 10-m winds valid at 4 am MST tomorrow morning. The latest NWS grid point forecasts for morning lows are: TUS 37 F; DM 38 F; and house 39 F. Since the forecast winds are marginally strong, the model will likely be too warm. The NWS gridpoint lows at the airport and DM may be too cold, but will probably be too warm here at the house. So a very difficult temperature forecast situation.