Snow and ice is hitting much of the East today with wintry weather from Georgia to New England - web cam view above is from Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, this morning. Early morning surface plot below shows the extent of the current storm - I see many reports of moderate to heavy snowfall. More chaos in Washington D.C.
The GFS ensemble forecast averages for 500 mb indicate gradual changes for the coming week. Above is average forecast for 5 pm MST this afternoon, with a flat ridge affecting the Southwest. By next Wednesday afternoon, below, the Southwest ridge has been flattened away and there is a new, and stronger ridge over the Pacific north of Hawaii. It appears that the weather focus will remain to the north as per the winter so far.
Below is the operational GFS forecast of total precipitation through 5 pm next Wednesday, February 19th. The Northeast and Northwest are forecast to have heavy and very heavy amounts of precipitation. The dryness persists in this model forecast over all of the Southwest. So far there has been only 0.67 inches of rainfall here at the house since December 1st, 2013.
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