Return Of The Dreaded West Coast Ridge?

Photo above is of the full moon setting over the northern Santa Rita Mountains - taken yesterday morning, Saturday, February 15th a bit before 7 am MST. It was very cold at sunrise but quite hot by midday near Sonoita. Here the house the lows on Friday and Saturday mornings were 36 F and 37 F with high temperatures each day of 86 F and 88 F - so very large diurnal swings of 50 and 51 F.

Have taken a look at the GFS ensemble forecasts for 500 mb for the coming week. Above average of the model's members is valid at 12 UTC this morning, Sunday, February 16. A low-amplitude, 500 mb ridge is centered over the U.S. and Canada. However, by 12 UTC next Sunday morning (the 23rd, below) the GFS and ECMWF models forecast a high-amplitude, bent-back ridge to rebuild along the West coast. The northern half of the western U.S. has benefited from the ridge's absence, with very heavy precipitation in many locations. But here in the Southwest we've had abnormal warmth and continued drought.