500 mb Closed Low Over Southern GoC

Was a very windy day in many locales yesterday. The airport reported gusts to only 28 mph, but up here along the Rillito wind gusts were considerably stronger for most of day - my estimates here were of gusts to 30 to 40 mph.

The 500 mb closed low centered over the mouth of the GoC this morning (NAM analysis above), has evolved about as predicted by various models. An approaching trough in the southern branch of the current split-flow regime will kick this low across northern Mexico by 5:00 pm MST on St. Patrick's Day (NAM forecast below). While the model forecasts a touch of light precipitation for southeast Arizona (forecast totals through 5:00 pm on the 17th at bottom), the main impacts will stay south of the border.