Saturday, May 23, 2015

Looking To The South

The eastern Pacific is very active, convectively, from 5 to 15 degrees north - above IR image is for 13 UTC this morning, May 23rd. The eastern Pacific tropical storm season "officially" began on May 15th. The current outlook from NHC (below) indicates moderate chances for each of two disturbances to develop into tropical storms - out by day 5 chances increase to 80% for the more northern disturbance, At very long ranges (216 hours valid 00 UTC 1 June), the operational ECMWF (at bottom) forecasts a tropical storm or hurricane to be south of Baja moving north. So, this may be the start of an interesting season over the eastern Pacific. I should note that the global models often cry wolf regarding tropical developments at ranges beyond 5 days or so.

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