Friday, May 08, 2015

Yet Another Moisture Starved Front Across Southern Arizona

The morning 500 mb analysis (above from NCAR RAL) shows the cold, 500 mb low currently located west of Las Vegas. The MIMIC blended PW analysis (below from CIMMS for 11 UTC) shows that this stsems has developed no enhanced moisture feed. However, the current, cold core of the system is producing precipitation in the mountains under it and also some thunderstorms, with one noted this morning at the San Diego airport. The low moves across Las Vegas and then toward Four-Corners Region by 5:00 am MST tomorrow morning (second below is WRF-NAM 500 mb forecast for that time). The model keeps the shower activity with this system  well to the north of southern Arizona. So we have another round of winds and a cool down as the Pacific front comes by today.

The first named storm in the Atlantic Basin has occurred early this "season," and is subtropical storm Ana. The NHC current forecast indicates this storm will go ashore in the Carolinas as it drifts slowly northwestward.

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