Yet another precipitation event after midnight here in metro Tucson area. There was 70% coverage (amounts of 0.04" and greater) across the ALERT network through 5:00 am MST. Amounts were mostly light, except over higher elevations from north through east. Here at house I measured 0.11" at sunrise. ALERT sector above for the Catalinas indicates two mountain sites with over an inch of precipitation. There were a few CG flashes with isolated thunderstorms along the northern border of Pima County, but most thunderstorm activity was from Pinal County northward. The plot below is of CG flash density for the 24-hours ending at 1245 UTC this morning (from weather.graphics and Vaisala).
The morning skewT plot of the 12 UTC TWC sounding (above from SPC) indicates a small amount of CAPE, mostly below 500 mb explaining the lack of thunderstorm activity in the metro area. A bit of heating would get convection bubbling again this morning. The wind profile aloft is very strong and any showers or thunderstorms should move rapidly to the north-northeast. The PW (0.79 inches) was probably a bit high, since there were showers in the area at sounding time. However, the 12 UTC blended PW from CIRA at Colorado State (below) indicates PW of over half an inch across a large area to our south and southwest.
The various models available this morning generally indicate that showers will end around mid-day. The southern-most vorticity maximum within the 500 mb trough will swing rapidly northeastward across southeastern Arizona from now through early afternoon. So there should be good chance of additional showers, especially if we get a bit of sunshine.
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