The next major 500 mb short wave digging south from high latitudes will affect the Southwest on Monday and Tuesday of next week. However, the models are forecasting some precipitation associated with a couple of weak short waves that are forecast to move along the Borderlands ahead of the major feature. The NAM is very wet and the above forecast is from the 06 UTC run of the WRF-NAM at Atmo - shown are precipitation amounts through 5:00 am MST on Monday the 16th. The amounts are very impressive for the southeast corner of Arizona (note that the WRF-GFS has apparently not run for the last couple of forecast cycles).
The forecasts from the 00 UTC runs of the NWS main models are shown here. Above is precipitation forecast (both through 5:00 am on the 16th) from the NAM and below is same forecast from the GFS. The GFS keeps the band of heaviest rainfall well south of the border, and is much drier than the NAM, although the model still forecasts a significant November event for southeast Arizona.
This preliminary event will be an interesting one to watch over the weekend, especially since conditions are starting out VERY dry over the Borderlands with PW values of only 4-5 mm present this morning. The MIMIC PW analysis from CIMSS at Univ. of Wisconsin (below for 09 UTC this morning) shows that higher PW values are well south of 30 N. However, the models are currently forecasting a general northward shift of PW values around an inch or so into southern Arizona as the short waves zip by.
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