Weather Miscellany - 19 November

First a bit re low temperatures: here at house the lows last three mornings have been 28 F Tuesday, 28 F Wednesday, and 30 F today (light frost all three mornings). This morning is a classic example of warm temperatures in the mountains and radiational cold at lower elevations, Low so far at airport (as of 7:00 am MST) has been 40F, Low here 30 F, Sasabe RAWS 29 F, and Empire RAWS 31F. In contrast the lows at Mt. Hopkins RAWS have been only 49 F, Rincon RAWS 46 F, and Sollers RAWS (Mt. Lemmon) 47 F. So below freezing at many low elevation sites and 20 F warmer up in the mountains.
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A backdoor front from the southern, High Plains will bring easterly winds, particularly on Saturday, which will complicate the low temperatures situation considerably next several mornings. Forecast above is from the 06 UTC run of the WRF-NAM at Atmo and is valid at noon on Saturday.
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The NHC is issuing advisories on TD Twenty-One E (above), which is currently located well south of the mouth of the GoC. The current forecast (below) indicates that the TD will become TS Rick. This system may bring heavy rains to parts of Baja and northwestern Mexico.  

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The forecast above is from the 00 UTC run of the WRF-GFS at Atmo and shows the forecast for total precipitation on the 5.4 km grid through 5:00 pm on Thanksgiving. The model currently forecasts little over much of the Southwest through the Holiday, but with significant rains to our south in Mexico and heavy mountain snows in parts of California, Utah and Colorado - of course this forecast goes way out though 7-days and is probably at best a very broad brush picture.