Friday, April 21, 2017

Hot Weekend In The Deserts

Forecast models indicate a hot weekend for the Sonoran and Mojave Deserts, as a 500 mb short-wave ridge passes by. The forecast above is from the 06 UTC WRF-NAM forecast run at Atmo and is for 2-m temperatures at 03:00 pm MST on Sunday afternoon.

In the longer-term, a strong 500 mb short wave is forecast into the Southwest by the last weekend of the month. Above forecast is from the operational ECMWF forecast from 00 UTC last evening.

The NWS GEFS plumes indicate a windy week (above and below from 06 UTC forecast runs), as per the 10-m winds shown above. Some members forecast quite strong speeds for next Thursday and Friday. Several of the members also forecast a bit of precipitation for the airport (below). At this point we can probably bank more on the winds than on the rain chances.

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