During the coming week the Pacific lobe of the subtropical high builds strongly over the Southwest. Above shows 500 mb average heights from the GEFS valid at 05:00 pm MST next Sunday afternoon (Father's Day) - not a pretty picture.
The GEFS plumes for temperature at TUS from 06 UTC last night are shown above and are rather amazing, given that these are forecasts directly from the ensemble members without any statistical manipulations. In keeping with all this is current NWS forecast (below) that begins today and extends through Father's Day.
Luckily, the US Open golf tournament will played far from here - out in the country side north of Dousman, Wisconsin. However, the synoptic pattern appears to favor nocturnal thunderstorm systems and even Derechos across Wisconsin during the time of the event (Thursday through Sunday).
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