Yesterday was the third day with very little thunderstorm activity over lower elevations of all of southern Arizona (24-hour detected CG flashes, above ending at 2:00 am MST this morning - from Atmo and Vaisala).
Total PW analysis from MIMIC above is for 7:00 am this morning - for calibration current 12 UTC values were: TWC 1.27", Yuma 1.23", and La Paz 1.85". The strong moisture gradient north of the developing storm lies very near La Paz, Baja Sur. Center of the disturbance is is near 25 degrees north, over the ocean east of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico, as per IR image below from 6:30 am this morning.
Morning forecast from NHC is above and keeps center of storm along west coast of Baja through Sunday and then turns it west, as 500 mb anticyclone blocks further northward movement. However, the WRF-GFS from 00 UTC last evening brings the storm into the mouth of the GoC and keeps it trapped as it moves slowly northward. The forecast below is is of PW and valid at 6:00 pm a week from today with the storm at the north end of the GoC.. Vastly different forecasts and possible impacts for southern Arizona. Lidia will be main feature of interest as we approach the Holiday weekend.
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