Another colorful sunrise today.
Isolated thunderstorms returned to southeast Arizona yesterday, even though CAPE was quite marginal. The plot of detected CGs (above from Atmo and Vaisala) is for 24-hours ending at midnight last night. There were two isolated storms on the southern and western flanks of the Catalinas - these produce light rainfall at seven ALERT sites.
The situation continues quite dismal and the 12 UTC WRF-RRx forecast from Atmo again indicates little activity for eastern Pima County. The sounding forecast by the model for TWC valid at 3:00 pm MST this afternoon (below) has reduced PW and no CAPE. Hard to know whether PW will stay steady at around 1.25", if so then chance of isolated storms is better than what model is forecasting.
At bottom is model's forecast (on the 5.4 km grid) of total rainfall though 4:00 am on Monday morning. Really phenomenal amounts associated with Harvey over Texas.
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