The 500 mb anticyclone (12 UTC analysis above from SPC) remains very strong and anchored over the Great Basin. Strong easterly winds did indeed bring drier air yesterday, and models predict even stronger dryness during midweek. However, temperatures are quite cool at 500 mb, partly due to mixed layers extending above that level. Regardless, the cool air will allow mountain thunderstorms that will try to come southwest into low elevations, producing mostly gusty winds.
Harvey remains nearly trapped and has now shifted southward over the GoM coastal waters and will continue to produce heavy rains as it shifts slow east and northward during the week.
Our next best hope for a return of more moist low-level air lies far to the south. The long term models (below is from 00 UTC ECMWF) all forecast a tropical system to approach the GoC - some bring it into GoC, while forecast below keeps it just to west of Baja by late Friday. The models all seem slow in moving the low-level, moist air with this system into southeastern Arizona - so something to keep an eye on. Unless I've lost track, this would be Hurricane Lidia, assuming that all goes as the forecasts go.
No comments:
Post a Comment