Wednesday, May 22, 2019

Strong 500 mb Short Wave Over Arizona Tonight

California 500 mb low this morning is forecast to move southeastward and sharpen-up considerably. The very moisture-starved system will move slowly across Arizona tonight. The 12 UTC NAM forecast above is for 500 mb, valid at 06 UTC tonight. The forecast models do hint that there might be just enough middle-level moisture ahead of the short wave to support some sprinkle showers this evening into the night; but basically a very marginal system, except for strong winds ahead of it. Wind forecasts from nighttime WRF forecasts remain similar to forecasts I posted yesterday.

David Blanchard sent two links to videos taken mid-morning Monday the 20th of a weak tornado (some refer to tornadoes of this character as "landspouts" because of their similarities to waterspouts, e.g. spinning up along a weak convergence line). This appears to have been the case with this brief tornado, southwest of Tuba City and north-northeast of Flagstaff along Highway 89. Image above by Shawn Williams and below from Matthew Harrison.

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