From Yosemite this morning, nice view of the falls (from Jack Hales webcam wall).
There is flat ridge over the Southwest currently, which will give us a very warm weekend. A trough sets up in the west early in the week and persists for 10 days or so. The GEFS averages for 500 mb show this - above is 84-hours and below is 168-hours, both from 06 UTC runs last evening. While this looks like a promising pattern for precipitation, low-level winds stay westerly and dry during the period. Same run, but operational only (second below), shows precipitation through the week with the Southwest staying dry, but with storms mostly over California and the western mountains.
Looking at May precipitation here at house back to 2000, I find only 2 years with 0.25" plus - May 2005 was very unusual and an extreme outlier with 1.05". However, 15 of those years had less than 0.05". For my short period of record, May is far and away the driest month of year, as pre-monsoon, dry heat sets in.
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