Unsettled Thru Weekend

Kitt Peak catching a bit of sunlight at 5:40 am MST this morning - (above, view is to the south). It was a beautiful morning to walk at sunrise, with clear and crisp conditions and no wind. The morning low temperature here at house hit 48 F.

The model forecasts are interesting this morning - particularly with their large large variance wrt moisture-related variables. The 06 UTC QPF plumes above from GEFS (above) all forecast light showers thru the weekend. However, timing and amounts are all over the place. The same forecasts of PW (below) exhibit much spaghetti after today and tomorrow. The operational forecast (blue) is actually 180 degrees out-of-phase with some of ensemble members.

The same forecasts for CAPE (above) are much more consistent with a distinct peak on Sunday the 12th (amounts though are pretty low). The GEFS 500 mb spaghetti plots below are distinctly stable through 12 UTC Saturday morning, showing almost no spaghetti on the large scale pattern forecasts. All of this just is reminder about how difficult the details of moisture forecasts are in some settings.