Saturday, May 11, 2019

WRF-GFS Forecasts For Tomorrow (Sunday, May 12th)

Clear skies this morning - view above to south from Kitt Peak a bit after 7:00 am MST.

However, upper-level low is currently just west of northern Baja (image below from GOES-17 is upper-level water vapor at 1330 UTC this morning), and is still forecast to move across northern Sonora tomorrow.

The 06 UTC WRF-GFS forecasts from Atmo indicate two bands of showers and thunderstorms moving from the east to affect the metro area - first one around 4:00 am and then a stronger band during early afternoon. The forecast composite radar chart above is valid at 2:00 pm tomorrow. The 10-m wind forecast (below) is valid at 1:00 pm. The forecasts indicate a fairly strong outflow associated with the stronger band - this would move across metro area during early afternoon. The model run's forecast of total precipitation (second below, valid for period ending at 10:00 pm on 12th) reaches around 0.50", or bit more, for parts of metro, with 0.30" forecast for airport. Now it is just wait to see what tomorrow actually brings.

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