View south from Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, this morning at about 7:00 am MST.
The NWS forecast (below, from early am today) is for hot - period. Highs expected in 105 + F range each day - not pretty.
Plot above (from Atmo and Vaisala) is for 12-hours of CG flashes detected over Mexico, ending at 11:00 pm last night. Most thunderstorm activity north of Cabo Corrientes remains along and east of the Continental Divide. Also not a pretty picture for this late in June.
However, TS Alvin has helped push higher PW north up the GoC (MIMIC TPW analysis above from 5:00 am this morning) with values reaching around 1 inch now in southeastern Arizona. The trof in the northwest and the upper anticyclone are combining to provide southerly winds at 700 mb (plot below for 5:00 am this morning), which are favorable for continuing to push higher PW northward.
The QPF plumes from the 00 UTC GEFS (above) indicate a slight chance for very light amounts at airport beginning tomorrow afternoon and continuing through the Fourth of July. Last night's 06 UTC run of the WRF-GFS forecasts light amounts over parts of eastern Pima County through 12 UTC on the 29th.
So, the overall synoptic situation is continuing to ease toward the start of summer thunderstorms over southeastern Arizona.
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