Thursday, December 21, 2023

Astronomical Winter

View toward the Rincons at 6:40 am MST this morning, with a couple of small, nearly stationary orographic clouds.

At 500 mb (above) there is a large, closed low centered west-southwest of San Francisco.

Morning forecasts from 12 UTC GFS (above valid at 12 UTC on Friday the 22nd and below valid at at 12 UTC on Saturday). The GFS forecasts indicate the closed low will come ashore near San Diego and move eastward across Arizona,

Current model forecasts (above from the 12 UTC run of the WRF-RR at Atmo) indicate that this will be a significant rain/snow event for much of southern Arizona. Morning NWS forecast for the airport (below) calls for very high POPs tonight through Saturday night.

So far our only December rain has been the 0.13" on the 1st.

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