Tropical Storm Erick developed around 3:00 am CST this early morning. The storm is forecast to become a Hurricane (below) and eventually strike the coast of southern Mexico.
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Bob...it's Pat...I am working up at the U of A this summer generating the monsoon forecast as Mike Leuthold has retired. Mike is still living out in Cochise county. Just to let you know...the NWS is not doing a 12Z sounding moving it to 18Z (10 am launch). I don't know the exact reason why but I think they just wanted to have a sounding a few hours before storms developed. Mike and Patrick Bunn (Mike's replacement) don't think this will improve the model runs post 18Z. I was thinking that continuing with the 12Z runs and supplementing for the forecaster a 18Z run on days that look to be active would be better. I kind of doubt there would be no more than 15-20 days during the monsoon this would be needed. Let me know what you think as we may meet with the NWS to discuss this. My email vph@arizona.edu.
ReplyDeleteHi Pat,
DeleteWhere do I find your discussions? With only one person on duty during mids at NWS there is no
way they can do a 12Z sounding launch.
Bob
Bob and Pat. This is John (NWS). The reasoning TWC went to the 18z launch vs 12z was due to staffing as we were mandated to go to 5 scheduled shifts/day. With the monsoon upcoming it was decided to go to solo mids. Its also a requirement to have two people on shift when doing a launch thus the move to 18z. It's not ideal.
ReplyDeleteHi John,
DeleteI visit TWC home page every day and had no idea that you were doing 18 UTC soundings! Figured that the NOAA cuts
and supply shortages had probably knocked you off-line.
Bob