Struggling cumulus over the Catalinas around 2:00 pm MST yesterday afternoon (8 September). Down at bottom is view of Rincons this morning a bit before 6:00 am.
Plot of detected CG flashes for 24-hours ending at 1403 UTC (7:03 am) shows Pima County storm-free. In fact, there has yet to be any rainfall here at house during September. - Quick Correction - I neglected to post on Labor Day when there was 0.03" during light, pre-dawn showers.
The 06 UTC GFS 500 mb forecast (above - valid at 18 UTC on Sept 16th) shows Arizona west of a huge anticyclone centered over the Southeast. There is an elongated trough over the Northwest. The GFS forecast of precipitation through this same period is shown below, with decent amounts stretching north through western New Mexico and eastern Arizona.
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