Suppressed Yesterday

Very hazy view of the Catalinas at 6:40 am MST this morning. At bottom is view of the Rincons at 5:40 am this morning.

MesoWest precipitation from Univ. of Utah, ending at 1421 UTC (7:21 am). It was very suppressed yesterday with no rainfall reported above, nor in the ALERT Network. 

A large anticyclone at 500 mb extends east-southeastward from Utah all the way into southern Mississippi. Note the warm reading of -4 C at Phoenix.

The GEFS 06 UTC plumes for QPF (above) indicate little chance for rain at the airport until mid-week next week. The 12 UTC WRF-RR forecast below indicates no rainfall for southeast Arizona through noon tomorrow.

Forecast POPs from the 06 run of the GFS (above) show high values for Tuesday and Wednesday next week. Current NWS morning forecast (below) highlights an Excessive Heat Warning for today and tomorrow

Some Showers Yesterday

View toward the Rincons at 5:35 am MST this morning.

Plot of detected CG flashes through 0733 UTC this morning shows storm activity over east-central Pima County, mostly avoiding the main metro area.

Rainfall occurred over the northern and southwestern parts of the ALERT Network through 7:00 am this morning (above and below). Here at the house we had some rumbling thunder during the early evening, but no rainfall. August here continues very dry, with only 0.27" here at the house.

The GEFS plumes for QPF at the airport (above) indicate only slight chances for rain until the end of next week. The GEFS POPs for measurable rain at airport (below) show higher POPs for airport  before the end of the month. The 06 UTC GFS forecast for precipitation amounts through end of August (second below)  show substantial rainfall across all of Arizona. Time will tell

Quick Update

View of Catalinas at 5:50 am MST this morning.

There were isolated thunderstorms around eastern portions of Pima County yesterday - as per plot of detected CG flashes ending at 1203 UTC (above - from Atmo).

Only a few scattered ALERT sites picked up 0.04" rainfall or more during 24 hours ending at 6:00 am this morning. We had some loud thunder here around 4:30 pm yesterday afternoon, but only a light shower that left 0.01" in my gauge.

Current morning forecast from the NWS for the airport through tomorrow shown above. The 15 UTC WRF-HRRR forecast for rainfall through noon tomorrow is shown below (also from Atmo).

Isolated Showers yesterday

View toward the Rincons at 5:50 am MST this morning.

Thunderstorms stayed mostly southeast to northwest of eastern Pima County yesterday, avoiding the metro area (as per plot of detected CG flashes through 0733 UTC today, above).

Precipitation reports from the ALERT Network for 24-hours ending at 7:00 am this morning (above and below) show rainfall reports mostly avoiding the metro area, with a couple of heavier reports near the Santa Rita Mountains. POPS for the metro area and airport were quite high yesterday, but they did not verify well. We had 0.02" at the house during the very early morning hours - August is continuing VERY dry here.

The 06 UTC forecast from the GFS (above, valid through 6:00 am tomorrow morning from Atmo) for rain amounts features a donut hole over much of the metro area. The morning NWS forecast for the weekend is shown below.

Showers Over Much Of Metro

View looking toward the Catalinas at 7:00 pm MST last evening, showing showers over east portion of City.

There was abundant CG activity over much of eastern half of Pima County yesterday - above shows detected flashes through 0803 UTC. We had lightning and rumbling thunder here around 7:00 to 7:30 pm, but no rain.

ALERT data for 24-hours ending at 7:00 am this morning (above and below) shows numerous reports, but with a large gap over main metro area, extending to the northwest.

The GFS 500 mb forecast valid at 12 UTC tomorrow (above) shows a large trough that will be impacting Arizona during the next couple of days.

The 12 UTC WRF-HRRR forecast for total rainfall through 6:00 am tomorrow (above) indicates scattered showers across much of central and eastern Pima County. Table below from NWS this morning shows their forecasts for coming week for sites in southeastern Arizona. The POPs remain high for Tucson through Saturday. I had to start watering yard plants yesterday, because of the long dry spell here.

 

Quick Update August 11th

View of sunrise east of Catalinas this morning at about 5:45 am MST.

Plot of detected CG flashes through 0833 UTC this morning shows no activity over eastern Pima County yesterday (above, from Atmo). There was no rainfall across entire ALERT Network yesterday, making past nine days completely dry - last rain here was during early am of August 1st.

The 12 UTC WRF-HRRR forecast from Atmo (above) keeps things dry through noon tomorrow. However, current forecast from NWS (below) indicates increasing POPs at airport through Wednesday.

Isolated Showers Yesterday

View toward Redington Pass at 6:30 am MST tis morning.

The 500 mb analysis this morning (above) shows a large anticyclone extending from northern Baja across western Texas and Oklahoma, northeastward all the way across Michigan and into Canada. There are several circulation centers within the anticyclone.

Plot of detected CG flashes for 24-hours ending at 0833 UTC today (above, from Atmo) shows that lightning activity stayed mostly south and southeast of Pima County. However, there were several isolated, light showers across parts of the ALERT Network (below, for 24-hours ending at 8:00 am this morning).

The 06 UTC WRF-GFS forecast (below) shows only a small area of showers over the main metro area through noon tomorrow.

TS Ivo

View looking toward Redington Pass at 4:50 am this morning. Bright object is a helicopter zipping westward.

IR image (above, from 1730 UTC today) shows TS Ivo off of Cabo Corrientes. Current NHC forecast (below) takes Ivo west-northwestward, and then westward, on a track that  should push very high amounts of TPW into Arizona.  TPW at 1500 UTC is shown in second panel below.

 Although the first week of August was very dry across Arizona, the long-term GFS forecast (below) shows very high rainfall amounts over southeastern Arizona and the Rim Country through the 23rd.

Very Suppressed Yesterday

View of the Catalinas at 5:00 pm MST yesterday afternoon.

The day was very suppressed, with no rain across the ALERT Network (above), and no detected CG flashes (below) over all of Arizona. Certainly not a typical August day.