No Rain Here

View of the Catalinas before sunrise at about 5:15 am MST this morning.

Plot of detected CG flashes (from Atmo for 24-hours ending at 0903 UTC - 2:03 am) shows that thunderstorms mostly avoided southeast Arizona yesterday afternoon. I did not hear any thunder, and there was no rain here either. The ALERT map for 24-hours ending at 8:00 am this morning (below) shows only a few sites with rainfall scattered across the northern part of the network.

The 12 UTC run of the WRF-HRRR at Atmo (below)  shows some storm activity in eastern Pima County before midnight tonight.

Lorena Slows And Weakens

Mix of clouds and blue skies over the area this morning - view above from7:15 am MST.

There were rumbles of thunder here around dark from storms off to the east, but no rain. The plot above (from Atmo) for 24-hours ending at 0803 UTC (0103 am) shows CG flashes scattered around eastern Pima County. The ALERT data below (ending at 7:00 am this morning) show rainfall amounts clustered over and near the Catalinas, with several heavy amounts near and over an inch.

The 06 UTC GEFS plumes for QPF at the airport (above) show rain amounts for the airport - note the large range of values - into the weekend. The GEFS POPs (below) show high values on the weekend.

Forecast of rain amounts (from 12 UTC WRF-HRRR) through 6:00 am tomorrow morning (above) keep rain west and southeast of the metro area.

The 500 mb forecast from the 12 UTC run of the WRF-HRRR (above valid at noon tomorrow) shows the remnants of Hurricane Lorena strung out across Baja and into northern Sonora. 

The current forecast from NHC for Lorena (below) indicates the system weakening as it tries to cross Baja.

Hurricane Lorena

View of the Catalinas at 6:15 am MST this morning.

Thunderstorms stayed mostly south and west of the metro area yesterday - as per indicated by the plot of detected CG flashes for 24-hours ending at 0803 UTC - 0103 am MST (above).

There was some rainfall over the southwest portion of the ALERT network for 24-hours ending at 7:00 am this morning (above) - there was also one site west of Picture Rocks that reported 0.04" - nothing here.

The chances for rain here into the weekend depend upon the track that Hurricane Lorena actually takes. The current NHC forecast is shown below; however, some models stall and dissipate the storm west of Baja. Current NHC track could bring us a rainy end of week.

Showers This Week

Colorful skies over the Rincons at 6:00 am MST this morning.

Plot of detected CG flashes, above for 24-hours ending at 0803z (1:03 am), shows almost no activity over southeastern Arizona and northern Mexico. There was no precipitation across the ALERT network, nor anywhere over the greater metropolitan area yesterday.

The 06 UTC GEFS plumes for QPF (above) indicate increasing chances for showers into the coming weekend. The plumes for temperature (below) show a distinct cool-down over the weekend.

The GEFS POPs (below) show high chances for rain at the airport at end of week. Current NWS forecast for the airport through Thursday is shown in graphic second below.

The 1430 UTC IR image above shows TD 12-E and a large MCS to its northeast over southern end of GoC. Current NHC forecast for 12-E (below) indicates that the storm could affect our area  by the weekend.

Last Day Of Summer

View at 6:40 pm MST yesterday of a haboob blowing into northern parts of the metro area. 

The strong outflow had its origins from thunderstorms over Cochise County - as per plot of detected CG flashes for 24-hours ending at 0733 UTC last night (above). Plot below (from MesoWest at Univ. of Utah) shows max gusts that occurred across the metro area during the hour ending at 0300 UTC (8:00 pm). I estimated gusts here at 25 to 35 mph. TUS noted gusts to 39 mph with dust; no obs from DM; and Atmo had gusts to 34 mph and no rain.

The 12 UTC WRF-HRRR forecast for 500 mb (above) is valid at 12 UTC tomorrow morning. While the forecast for precipitation from the same run (below) indicates almost nothing over all of southern Arizona. The morning forecast from NWS for the airport (bottom) calls for low POPs through tomorrow. Thus, it appears that September gets started much like August ended.

Quick Update

View of heavy clouds over Catalinas at 6:30 am MST this morning - skies are mostly clear now.

Plot of detected CG flashes (from Atmo) for 24-hours ending at 6:33 am this morning indicates that thunderstorms mostly stayed south of the metro area. ALERT plot below shows that light rainfall fell across most of the southern portion of the network - check of timing showed that precipitation fell after midnight. We had 0.04" in the gauge here that apparently fell around 4:30 am this early morning.

Mostly Dry Yesterday

View of Rincons at 5:30 am MST this morning, with bright helicopter or airplane.

Plot of detected CG flashes (from Atmo - above) shows a large region with no activity stretching from metro Tucson northward. Following the light, pre-dawn shower yesterday, rest of day was fair and dry here.

Not many reports over northern portion of the ALERT network for 24-hours ending at 7:00 am (above), but more reports over southern part of the network (below), with a heavy amount just west of Green Valley.

The 06 UTC GEFS plumes for QPF (above) indicate chances for light showers through the coming week - early morning showers did not materialize today. The GEFS POPs for the airport (below) indicate 30 to 60 percent chances most days. 

The 06 UTC WRF-GFS forecast of rainfall through noon tomorrow (above) shows very dry conditions across much of Arizona. Current morning forecast for the airport from NWS (below) calls for slight chances today. 

Haboob Hits Phoenix

 The very severe storm that hit Phoenix yesterday gets its own separate post. 

The observations from PHX (above) show gusts to 70 mph around 5:50 pm yesterday, along with 0 visibility. Blurb below is from the Weather Channel.

Scattered Showers Yesterday and Early Today

Sunrise colors over the Catalinas at 6:00 am MST this morning.

Plot of detected CG flashes through 1053 UTC this morning (above from Atmo) shows a bit of a donut hole over eastern Pima County.

ALERT reports through 7:00 am (above and below) also show bit of donut hole, but with some heavy amounts north side of Catalinas and out west of I-10.

MesoWest reports across metro area through 9:00 am (above, from Univ. of Utah) show light amounts scattered across the city. We had thunder and a Trace yesterday afternoon, and 0.02" before sunrise this morning.

Quite a few severe winds reported by SPC (above) yesterday in southern Arizona and southern California. Nearest report to Tucson was a gust to 62 mph at Marana. Couple of sites in California reported wind gusts of 75 and 76 mph.

Forecast of total rainfall from the 15 UTC WRF-HRRR run (above) indicates heavy storms this afternoon over eastern Pima County. The current morning forecasts from the NWS are shown in two graphics below.