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Morning view from Atmo at 7:00 am MST this morning, showing our continued heavy cloud cover.
Was an active thunderstorm day yesterday and last night as per above plot of detected CG flashes (from Atmo and Vaisala) for 24-hours ending at 6:00 am this morning. A thunderstorm with gusts to 40 mph occurred at the airport.
Plot above from MesoWest (above for 24-hours ending at 7:00 am) shows rainfall reports across the metro area. Measured 0.30" here this morning - occurred mostly yesterday afternoon and evening but with another light shower after midnight. This was our first rain of more than quarter of an inch since September 26th.
Looked at wind speeds for about the past day at both Mt. Hopkins and Kitt Peak. Above time series at two different telescopes on Hopkins (I think that "Young" is at 8585 ft. MSL, while "Young 2" is at 7800 ft MSL). Max gust at the RAWS site down at the entrance came in at 46 mph at 5:00 am this morning. Kitt Peak (below - at the larger 4 Meter facility) has had several gusts around 60 mph.
The morning sounding from TWC (above) continus moist with some CAPE and very strong southwesterly winds aloft. The graphic below (from the 12 UTC WRF-RR run at Atmo) shows composite radar echoes forecast for 10:00 pm early tonight. Continued chances for storms and rain extend into tomorrow.
Early morning cloudiness south of Kitt Peak.
The southern, 500 mb closed low is west of central Baja at 120 degrees west. This feature is shown in the TPW analysis above at 12 UTC this morning. Values around an inch have moved northward into the lower Colorado River Basin.
The composite radar chart above (from 06 UTC WRF-NAM forecast at Atmo) is valid at 7:00 pm MST early tonight. Note - Ironically, the TWC radar will be undergoing scheduled maintenance through Wednesday and available only intermittently.
Forecast of total precipitation (below, from 06 UTC WRF-NAM) is for period from now until midnight Thursday night. Amounts at TUS now forecast by model to be around 1.70 inches (yesterday the models were predicting only about 0.40" for the airport). Second below is the operational GFS forecast for total precipitation for the same period.
Finally, plot below shows 3-hourly QPF amounts from SPC for the SREF (26 member ensemble system) forecasts for the airport. The plumes indicate three distinct periods of rain from now through Friday. Hopefully we'll get a nice amount here, since things are extremely dry, given our long period without meaningful rainfall.
Morning view of San Francisco Peaks - not a hint of white yet. At bottom is Aberdeen Beach, Scotland, a bit before 5:00 pm local time. Photos grabbed from Jack Hales webcam wall.
This morning's 12 UTC 500 mb chart (above from NCAR RAP) continues with little change from yesterday. Forecasts still eject the Baja closed low northeastward across Arizona. Current outlook from NWS Tucson below.
Although Raymond is no longer a tropical storm, there is large MCS associated with his remnants, and a large mass of cloudiness extending north almost to Arizona border (IR image above is for 15 UTC this morning).
Forecast of composite radar echoes (above from 12 UTC WRF-RR forecast this morning) is valid at 6:00 pm on Tuesday the 19th - very strong to severe thunderstorms forecast for our area. Forecast sounding for TWC (valid at same time) below is very moist with significant CAPE and strong winds above 700 mb.
Second graphic below is for 00 UTC WRF-GFS forecast of total precipitation through 6:00 pm on the 21st (Thursday). The model forecasts a VERY significant event now for most of state. Model amounts much higher than official NWS forecast amounts shown above.
Heavy cloudiness drifting around this morning as viewed from Kitt Peak above around 6:30 am MST this morning. Down at bottom are dreary skies at LAX this morning - note the 747 center left. The Boeing aircraft was the first "Jumbo Jet" and its initial commercial flight was 50 years ago in 1969.
Tropical Storm Raymond is forecast by the NHC this morning to move northward and to be about halfway up the GoC by midday Monday (the 18th). The large, cold cloud shield with the late-season storm is shown below in the 13 UTC IR image. The interplay between Raymond and two closed-lows at 500 mb will combine to bring us our first chance for widespread rains since last September.
The two 500 mb forecasts here are from the 00 UTC run of the WRF-GFS at Atmo. Forecast above is valid at midnight next Tuesday night. A closed low west of northern Baja has opened up and is ejected across southeastern Arizona, as strong low over the Northwest digs southward. Forecast below (valid at 6:00 am next Thursday morning shows that the main low has moved southward and is centered north of Yuma.
In response to the 500 mb features, PW makes and astounding recovery, after bottoming out Monday at very low values (forecast plumes above from 06 UTC forecasts of the GEFS - note increase of about an inch during course of about 24-hours). The very large increase in PW is associated with the northward movement of Raymond and its remnants up the GoC. The plumes for QPF and temperature below indicate the significant impacts these features will likely bring.
Finally (back to the 00 UTC WRF-GFS forecast) the current forecast for total precipitation through midnight Thursday night is shown below. Most significant amounts stretch from southeast to northwest across Arizona, with very significant amounts forecast for the northwest part of state. All of this is still four to five days away, and it will be very interesting to watch how all the features actually evolve.
Pre-sunrise view from Atmo this morning. Bottom shows large ship going through the Panama Canal.
Above plot shows 30-day rainfall ending at 6:00 am MST this morning for stations in ALERT network. Light amounts at about half the sites and nada at the rest.
Early morning temperatures across metro area (above at 6:30 am) from MesoWest range from middle 40s to middle 60s (one obviously bad station along the Pantano Wash).
GEFS plumes for QPF from 00 UTC run (below) continue to forecast rainfall at airport beginning late on the 19th (next Tuesday).
Forecast from NHC at 2 am (above) indicates that depression Twenty-E will strengthen this morning to become a late-season storm (IR image below is impressive and Randolph - I think we're at the "R" storm - may have already formed).
Pre-dawn view at Cabo San Lucas, southern Baja, this morning.
Forecast models are beginning to indicate hopes for precipitation by middle of next week. Above is 500 mb forecast from ECMWF run at 00 UTC last evening - valid at 00 UTC on the 21st. Below are four panels from the GEFS for 00 UTC same day next week. Forecasts are for precipitation and indicate rainfall affecting parts of our region - finally.
There is also a developing tropical disturbance to our south. Graphic above is TPW at 12 UTC this morning. Bottom two panels are from NHC this morning and indicate the developing disturbance should move slowly northward. The moisture with this feature may eventually interact with the trough shown in the ECMWF forecast to enhance chances for precipitation. However, all this is a week in the future, but it is a glimmer of hope for a return of some weather.
View of campus this morning at 7:22 am MST - note that flag is not indicating wind on campus.
Down at bottom is view of the St. Louis Gateway Arch yesterday afternoon in the snow.
MesoWest plot above shows observed wind gusts at 7:00 am this morning. Strongest gusts are again west of Redington Pass along the Rillito (25 to 30 mph) and along I-10 and then west out to Three Points and Kitt Peak.
Shown below are two forecasts from the 06 UTC WRF-GFS for 10-m winds at 7:00 am (top) and 7:00 pm (bottom). Winds were forecast to be stronger than observed over main portion of the City.
