Early morning cloudiness south of Kitt Peak.
The southern, 500 mb closed low is west of central Baja at 120 degrees west. This feature is shown in the TPW analysis above at 12 UTC this morning. Values around an inch have moved northward into the lower Colorado River Basin.
The composite radar chart above (from 06 UTC WRF-NAM forecast at Atmo) is valid at 7:00 pm MST early tonight. Note - Ironically, the TWC radar will be undergoing scheduled maintenance through Wednesday and available only intermittently.
Forecast of total precipitation (below, from 06 UTC WRF-NAM) is for period from now until midnight Thursday night. Amounts at TUS now forecast by model to be around 1.70 inches (yesterday the models were predicting only about 0.40" for the airport). Second below is the operational GFS forecast for total precipitation for the same period.
Finally, plot below shows 3-hourly QPF amounts from SPC for the SREF (26 member ensemble system) forecasts for the airport. The plumes indicate three distinct periods of rain from now through Friday. Hopefully we'll get a nice amount here, since things are extremely dry, given our long period without meaningful rainfall.
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