Heavy cloudiness drifting around this morning as viewed from Kitt Peak above around 6:30 am MST this morning. Down at bottom are dreary skies at LAX this morning - note the 747 center left. The Boeing aircraft was the first "Jumbo Jet" and its initial commercial flight was 50 years ago in 1969.
Tropical Storm Raymond is forecast by the NHC this morning to move northward and to be about halfway up the GoC by midday Monday (the 18th). The large, cold cloud shield with the late-season storm is shown below in the 13 UTC IR image. The interplay between Raymond and two closed-lows at 500 mb will combine to bring us our first chance for widespread rains since last September.
The two 500 mb forecasts here are from the 00 UTC run of the WRF-GFS at Atmo. Forecast above is valid at midnight next Tuesday night. A closed low west of northern Baja has opened up and is ejected across southeastern Arizona, as strong low over the Northwest digs southward. Forecast below (valid at 6:00 am next Thursday morning shows that the main low has moved southward and is centered north of Yuma.
In response to the 500 mb features, PW makes and astounding recovery, after bottoming out Monday at very low values (forecast plumes above from 06 UTC forecasts of the GEFS - note increase of about an inch during course of about 24-hours). The very large increase in PW is associated with the northward movement of Raymond and its remnants up the GoC. The plumes for QPF and temperature below indicate the significant impacts these features will likely bring.
Finally (back to the 00 UTC WRF-GFS forecast) the current forecast for total precipitation through midnight Thursday night is shown below. Most significant amounts stretch from southeast to northwest across Arizona, with very significant amounts forecast for the northwest part of state. All of this is still four to five days away, and it will be very interesting to watch how all the features actually evolve.
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