The two NAM 36-hour forecasts above are valid at the same time as the two 84-hour forecasts shown in post below. Very consistent, with just a bit of slowing in the forecast progress of the 500-mb S/W across the Southwest. Considerable cloud cover moved into Arizona since yesterday afternoon and the weekend is progressing much like a week ago. Note that the more recent forecasts above are picking up more moisture from the south than did the earlier forecasts. But again, very impressive model performance!
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Unfortunately, the Tucson NWS radar remains out-of-service and we may have a second significant precipitation event without any radar data for southeastern Arizona. Latest status message reports that Sunday would be the earliest radar could come back on-line.
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A Grid Forecast for Kitt Peak - Sunday Night: Snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33. Breezy, with a south southwest wind between 13 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
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A Forecast Question - I see this kind of forecast frequently when I look at the grid point forecasts (grids are 4 x 4 km I think). Since the grid is so small, this is essentially a point forecast and it is not clear how the general public would or could intreprete this forecast. Comments or clarification most welcome.
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