Fast hitting, nasty storm today for southern Utah and Arizona northern and eastern mountains. View on top is from webcam looking north from Flagstaff. Strong cutoff and shortwave at 500 mb swings rapidly across north half of state today. Coldest air at 500 mb appears to be advecting into Great Basin; however, very strong cold advection at 700 mb is pushing rapidly across southern California with strong and gusty surface winds. Thus, cold front likely across southern Arizona and current forecast of 30% chance of showers with the front looks quite reasonable, since strongest forcing for upward motion is with the strong PVA north and and also with upslope winds.
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Three 500 mb waves are scrunched together from off the West Coast to Arizona to Kansas, see NAM 500 mb analysis above, at wavelengths that appear too close together. NAM forecasts the two western S/Ws to rapidly move into, and phase with, the Kansas wave - this too seems very reasonable. Thus, two fast moving shortwaves coming by with rapid changes, gusty winds, and perhaps some visually impressive convective showers.
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