A strong S/W at 500 mb is forecast to cross southern Arizona on Thursday by the NWS NAM model runs this morning - this feature was mentioned below in an earlier post when all the GFS ensemble members were in agreement at longer time frames. The current NAM run forecasts little in the way precipitation at lower elevations across southern Arizona, keeping significant precipitation amounts in the mountains. Thicknesses are forecast around 540 dm, or a bit lower, so snow levels will lower rapidly on the mountains. The 500 mb vorticity advection is forecast to be quite powerful across the Borderlands, and I expect that there may be some visually spectacular convection along the front. Winds will be quite strong with and ahead of this system. Katie and I will be affected by this S/W since we're flying to San Diego on Thursday morning. It will then catch up with us in the Chicago area, where we're headed, on Saturday and Saturday night.
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