Saturday, August 20, 2011

Irene

The operational members of the ECMWF and the GFS having been forecasting a tropical system to approach Florida during the second part of next week. The models spin the system into a hurricane and bring it to north side of Cuba. Below are the 144-hour forecasts of surface pressure (from the ECMWF) and of 850 mb (from the GFS) both valid at 1200 UTC on Friday the 26th.




A recon flight today found a tropical storm already present and it has been named Irene. The initial NHC forecast for Irene is shown above. There is a lot of land mass between the storm and the Florida Straits - so weather eyes will be turned to the east during the coming week to see just how this storm evolves.

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