We were off near Sonoita Friday afternoon and all day yesterday. Not much to report down there either, but the greening of the grasslands has occurred, and they have had more than 6 inches of rainfall since the start of July. Storms yesterday mostly avoided the central Tucson area and formed around the higher elevations surrounding the city. About 40% of the ALERT stations had rainfall with heaviest amounts on Catalinas/Reddington Pass area. The greater Tucson portion of the network had rain at 4 of 20 sites. Nothing here at the house since some light, Trace, sprinkles on Friday before noon.
The morning Tucson sounding (1200 UTC Sunday August 14) shows slight CAPE after some drying since yesterday morning (PWs are around 1.4 to 1.5" over southeastern Arizona). The extremely poor flow regime continues day-after-day, with very light winds below 300 mb. The 500 mb anticyclone has two separate lobes - one over Texas Panhandle and the other somewhere near central Baja. A very weak trough/shear zone lies between from southern GoC to northwest Arizona. The morning NAM forecast indicates the western lobe will shift toward east-central Arizona during the next day today but with continued weak winds. The NAM does suggest an improved 500 mb pattern by 84-hours.
The NAM morning forecast keeps heavier rains south of the border today (above is total precipitation through midnight tonight) with very light amounts across southeast Arizona - this means mountain storms again with some drifting off the mountains, and anvils streaming toward the north-northeast. We continue with little chance for rain here at house, unless a cell develops nearly overhead - which will perhaps happen one of these days.
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