Wednesday, November 30, 2011

Significant Model Uncertainties Out At Only 60 Hours

First - re low temperatures this morning. We had another below freezing morning here at house, with low of 31F. it appears that the airport was 14F warmer with a low of 45F.

The models still have considerable differences in their precipitation forecasts for tomorrow and Friday. Above is the 66-hour forecast from this morning showing NAM forecasted precipitation through 11 pm Firday night. the NAM forecasts precipitation over the northeastern half of state, with none forecast here in the Tucson area. The same forecast from the GFS (below) predicts a nice rainfall event over all of Arizona, except for the far southwest corner of state.

The early run of Atmo's WRF-GFS (is somewhat similar to the GFS from which it was initialized) is shown below, with it's precipitation forecast through 11 pm Friday night. The WRF forecasts much less precipitation across southern Arizona than does the GFS. The WRF focus for this event is in the Rim country to the north. So, pick your preference and keep your fingers crossed.

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