Tuesday, April 17, 2012

Global Models Hanging Onto Blocks


Have been looking at the long-range forecasts from the global forecast models this morning. Above 500 mb forecast is from last evening's ECMWF (144-hour forecast valid at 00 UTC 22 April). During the 5 to 7 day period the model forecasts a strong omega block over the west-central US and Canada. Then, during days 8 to 10 the ECMWF 500 mb forecast shifts the pattern toward a Rex block off the west coast of North America and amplifies the strong ridge over the north Atlantic (forecast below is 240-hours valid at 00 UTC 26 April). If the ECMWF forecasts verify, there's little to get excited about here in southeastern Arizona - except perhaps an early break of the high temperatures into the 100s.


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