Friday, April 13, 2012

Little Change In Model Forecasts For Tomorrow


This morning's WRF-GFS early run remains similar to yesterday's, although precipitation amounts are down some. This morning's NWS NAM forecasts an even lighter event. The table above is the WRF-GFS forecast numbers for today and tomorrow. Widespread, but light precipitation, and some very chilly low temperatures at sunrise on Sunday.


There is a fairly large area of PW amounts from 25 to 30 mm heading toward the Southwest - see blended PW product for 1300 UTC this morning (above). The WRF-GFS forecast soundings (below is for 5 am MST tomorrow morning) indicate that precipitation growth will occur below 600 mb, with dry air aloft at higher levels. Perhaps this is the reason for the lighter amounts in the early run today. Now mostly a matter of watching the event unfold.


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