While I was browsing through the model forecasts yesterday morning, I noticed that the 48-hour NAM forecasts indicated a substantial MCS over Louisiana and the northern Gulf of Mexico at 12 UTC on the morning of April 3rd (tomorrow morning - see above NAM forecast of radar echoes). This morning's new forecast, valid the same time tomorrow morning, continues to predict a significant MCS in the same general location - see current NAM radar forecast below for 24-hours.
The 24-hour 700 mb forecast for tomorrow morning (above) indicates a substantial field of upward motion that has been generated by both low-level warm advection and mesoscale convective circulations. The NAM model forecasts heavy rains with this MCS and, depending on the evolution of CAPE, it may be a severe weather producer too. Most interesting is that the model forecasts a very long fetch from the Caribbean and Bay of Campeche for the low-level jet (below is 850 mb forecast of winds and precipitable water for 12 UTC tomorrow). Moisture values are high and substantial low-level moisture and warm temperature advection is forecast into the area of the MCS. Given the forecast consistency, perhaps the model will do better in this situation than the MCS forecast discussed in an earlier post?
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