Back To Some Weather Talk

As May approaches, things will be heating up, and the Tucson NWS forecast this morning (Saturday 27 April) indicates high temperatures at the airport grid of 100 F on next Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. Last year the first 100 F day occurred on April 22nd and was the second earliest on record for Tucson.

By May 1st the global models are forecasting another strong cold front plunging down the Front Range of the central and southern Rockies. I've shown the operational, 120-hour forecasts for 850 mb from 00 UTC last evening. Above is from the ECMWF and below is from the GFS. Both forecasts are quite similar, with the front nearing the Texas Big Bend country by 5 pm on May Day. The ECMWF appears to forecast a stronger temperature gradient with the front than does the GFS. Both models try to backdoor the front into southeastern Arizona on Thursday the 2nd - so something to watch as the new month begins.