The digging short wave at 500 mb and the strong push of cold air down the Front Range, and also south across the Great Basin, combine to produce a significant wind event for much of the Southwest. At leastthis is the case in this morning's forecasts from Atmo's WRF-GFS model. I'm showing several different forecasts here to convey the extent and variability of the forecast event. The panel above is the 1.8 km grid, 10-m wind forecast valid at 11 pm MST tomorrow night (May 1st). At that time the forecast indicates strongest winds across the northwestern third of the 1.8 km domain. But the front is also intruding into the eastern domain over New Mexico. Below is the forecast for 8 am MST on the 2nd across the 5.4 km domain. The 10-m winds are now forecast to be strongest over the northern LA Basin, in a kind of Santa Ana wind pattern. Stronger winds are also moving into southeastern Arizona from the east.
Forecast above is also valid at 8 am, but on the 1.8 km grid and is shown for comparison; note the nasty winds over the northern Gulf of California. Below is the 1.8 km grid forecast valid at 11 pm on the 2nd, when the model forecasts the strongest winds across southeastern Arizona. The WRF-GFS model forecasts a complex and rapidly evolving wind event that will impact much of the Southwest Tuesday night and Wednesday -something to watch as it evolves during the coming two days.
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