Wednesday, May 01, 2013

Update -WRF And Southern California Winds

The surface plot above for a bit after 8 am MST on Wednesday May 1st indicates that the front plunging down the Front Range is just passing Roswell, New Mexico. This quite close to what the global models were predicting a couple of days ago. Th graphic below shows the WRF-GFS forecast, on the 5.4 km grid, of 10-m winds valid at 8 am MST this morning - from the early run initialized with 0600 UTC data. The domain does not extend to eastern New Mexico so the post-frontal wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph can not be compared with the forecast.

The strong winds forecast over southern Nevada and southern California appear to have verified quite well when compared to the 8 am MST surface plot below. I note a gust to 43 mph in southern Nevada. However, the strong winds forecast on the mountain slopes of the LA Basin have not materialized yet.

The WRF-GFS forecast of winds at 8 am MST tomorrow on the 2nd of May indicates a serious windstorm in the LA Basin, strong winds over northwestern Arizona, and stronger winds nosing into southeast Arizona from New Mexico. The model forecasts continue similar to yesterday's and indicate a significant wind event for much of the Southwest, although timing, areas affected, and directions are highly variable.

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