Graphic above from Jack Diebolt at about 5:00 am MST shows 10m winds and surface dewpoints. The surge triggered by Javier, with MCS help in Sonora, came in with a vengeance after dark last evening. Dewpoints are up, way up in some cases, over all of southern Arizona. Yuma jumped almost 30 F when the surge arrived. Heavy thunderstorms have already developed in the Nogales and Ft. Huachuca areas.
The 12 UTC morning sounding from TWC (skewT plot above from SPC) is very unstable with little lift required to trigger storms. Steering winds however are light and variable. There are heavy thunderstorms to the southeast, and I expect that storms will build into the metro area as as outflows move toward the north and west. Radar below is from 6:07 am and IR image at bottom is from 5:30 am.
Take care during the morning commutes as it will likely be very stormy.
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