Some photos first - above from Mike Leuthold yesterday afternoon, looking east from his place in very green Paradise. Just below is view south from Kitt Peak at almost 8:00 pm MST last evening - cameras out there are more light-sensitive than are the ones on campus. Second below is view from campus at 7:00 am this morning.
There were isolated thunderstorms yesterday afternoon - mostly over higher terrain - in eastern Pima County. Above is plot of detected CG flashes through midnight last night - from Atmo and Vaisala. Only 10 sites scattered around the ALERT Network had light precipitation yesterday.
Sounding is interesting this morning (below, skewT from SPC). There is dry air in low-levels, but with a layer from about 750 to 600 mb that has elevated CAPE. The text block at lower left indicates most unstable parcel to be at 730 mb. This may mean a bit more activity today over the Sky Islands.
Tropical Storm Javier is south of the tip of Baja this morning, but with another large MCS to its north along the coast about a third of the way up the GoC. It appears that surge of higher low-level moisture has passed Obregon and Loreto, but has not quite reached Guaymas. The surge as forecast by the 5.4 km WRF-GFS is shown in two bottom panels - top is initialization at 11 pm last night , while bottom is valid at 11:00 am MST tomorrow morning. The model forecasts a fairly typical GoC surge with the north end of the Gulf and lower Colorado River Basin experiencing a rapid transition from dry to very moist conditions.
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