Saw the chaos-related cartoon above the other day - I think that the late Joe Galway wrote a tongue-in-check essay long ago about the flap of a butterfly's wings in Brazil and its eventual impact. However, I have searched and can not find it.
Locally, the PW has dropped steadily during the day and there are currently only isolated thunderstorms over higher terrain at the southeast corner of eastern Pima County.
Tropical Storm Javier has developed and is expected to move northward along the west coast of Baja the next several days. The grid point forecast for the airport (below) is quite aggressive - NWS POPs for the airport are currently 80% for Wednesday and Wednesday night. This is quite a bold forecast for three days out, considering how many small-scale details can go awry here.
Summer so far here at the house:
JUNE
The first tstm occurred on June 10th with tstms on 7 days during the month. Two of these were severe with wind gusts over 58 mph.
There was rainfall on 5 days with a total of 2.37" - only two days with amounts over 0.50" - .51" on the 30th and 1.45" during the extremely severe wet downburst storm of June 26th.
JULY
There were tstms on 11 days during the month and two of these produced severe wind gusts.
There was rainfall on 11 days with a total of 2.29", but only one day with more than half an inch - 0'62" on the 29th.
AUGUST - through the 6th
There have been tstms so far on 5 days - none of which were severe.
Rainfall on 5 days has totaled 0.71" with no amounts yet of half an inch or more.
The character of the summer has become better than I anticipated after the poor first three weeks of July. In fact, the Catalinas are amazingly green right now, and the weeds are growing out of control - with many City right-of-ways in violation of City weed ordinances.
Disclaimer - my thunderstorm numbers may be low because of my severe hearing loss.
It will be interesting to see what this TS Javier brings us during the coming week.
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