Tuesday, February 14, 2017

East Winds Tomorrow/Another System On Weekend

First tomorrow's east winds - the 10 m wind forecast above is from the 06 UTC WRF-GFS run at Atmo last night and is valid at 10:00 am MST tomorrow morning. If it verifies, winds tomorrow would be gusty and over 30 mph across windy parts of metro tomorrow.

The forecast sounding for Sonoita (below) from the model run is valid at 05:00 am tomorrow morning. If this sounding forecast proves accurate, I'd expect winds after midnight gusting to 50 to 65+ mph at the Mt. Hopkins RAWS station.

Looking ahead to the weekend - above is the current am forecast for the TUS gridpoint, indicating 70% POPs for measurable rain next Saturday. This forecast event is produced by a negatively-tilted, short wave that is forecast by global models to dig into Arizona and northern Sonora.

The 06 UTC GEFS plumes (just below) for QPF at the airport on next Saturday are currently all over the place. The ensemble members forecast the 500 mb closed low to come ashore anywhere from northern to southern Baja, resulting in the large spreads in timing and QPF forecast.

The feature that would produce this event is currently embedded somewhere within a very strong, zonal jetstream far out in the central to west Pacific (around or west of the Dateline). The 00 UTC GFS analysis at 250 mb is shown at bottom. The fast and zonal flow makes predictability somewhat uncertain this far out in time. So another event in the models that we'll have to observe as it eventually tips its hand later this week.

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