Sunday, February 19, 2017

Underwhelming "Event" For Southeast Arizona

The WRF forecasts were, unfortunately, right on in their forecasts of very light precipitation for lower elevations of southeast Arizona (see earlier posts). Yesterday morning's NWS forecast for QPF at the airport was 0.55" but observed was only 0.05". We received same amount here at house. My quick assessment remains that very strong, but downslope, winds were the main culprit. Radar loops yesterday seemed to indicate this also. There were undoubtedly other features at play also, but end result was not much.

There are light showers around this early am - above is composite radar at 06:37 am MST. Web cam views up in Summerhaven indicate several inches of snowfall there (below).

Shown here are ALERT amounts for 24-hours ending at 06:00 am - above is entire network, while below is zoomed on metro area. Except for the Sky Islands, amounts were generally less than a tenth of an inch. Western regions and Phoenix area did an order of magnitude better.

The morning sounding (below from SPC) indicates some moist instability below 600 mb, so showers continue possible for today - steering flow this part of town will be from the Tucson Mountains, which sometimes does pretty good here. 

Another "so it goes" event that was most exciting when the wind was gusting strongly here and there were some power surges.

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