Webcam view from LAX early this afternoon.
Three major wildfires in California, two in the L.A. Basin, are the focus of national news this morning - hundreds of structures burned and thousands evacuated. Photos here are in L.A. area this morning (bottom from Jack Hales webcam wall).
In an earlier post I noted the differences in the 144-hour, operational 500 mb forecasts valid at 00 UTC today. Top is GFS, above is verifying analysis from SPC, and below is the ECMWF. Hard to subjectively evaluate the two forecasts. The ECMWF was definitely too strong in the West and slow over north-central U.S. The GFS was just the opposite. Average of both forecasts seems to verify best.
As for the winds late afternoon into tomorrow am across the metro area, the high-res WRF forecasts continue to forecast strong east winds (above from WRF-GFS run at 06 UTC and valid at 10:00 pm), that would likely gust 30 to 40 mph. Meanwhile the NWS digital forecast (just below for the airport - updated around 7:00 am MST this morning) forecasts little in the way of local winds. In contrast at bottom is the WRF forecast of surface conditions valid at 10:00 pm tonight, indicating wind speeds of 20 to 30 mph across the metro. Will watch to see how this evolves.
No comments:
Post a Comment