Thursday, October 24, 2019

Coffee, Rainbow, Fire, And Wind

Neighbors John and Jodi Ferner brought us a bag of coffee from Flagstaff - it's very good and smooth. But I post photo because of the "Storm Chaser" blend - although, art is obviously down in our part of Arizona.

Rainbow on Tuesday hangs over the Capital. It's bringing luck for the Nationals in the World series, but I won't elaborate on the political messes ongoing under the bow.

High winds and wildfires happening again in northern California - above image from last night in Sonoma County's wine country.

The 500 mb analysis for 12 UTC this morning (above) shows sharp trough from our area north to Nebraska Panhandle. The California winds were occurring as pressures and heights rose markedly over Nevada behind this trough. Much of the West remains very dry, with low PWs - MIMIC analysis of TPW below was from 6:00 am MST this morning.

The precipitation outlook remains grim - forecast above (from 06 UTC WRF-GFS run at Atmo) is for total precipitation through noon next Monday. However, the cold front associated with the 500 mb trough will backdoor across southeastern Arizona tonight, and bring strong easterly winds into our area. The 10-m wind forecast below (from same model run) indicates winds at airport over 30 mph at 7:00 am tomorrow morning. No hope yet for rain, but nasty winds if the WRF forecast verifies.

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